Arlington, VA Real Estate Overview for 2021
Real estate sales and values in Arlington, VA flourished in 2021, except for condos. Single family home market has continued to be absolutely mad and is continuing to be mad due to very low inventory levels. Loan interest rates remained at record lows and helped keep the prices high.
Let’s look at Arlington, VA real estate statistics:
1. Single family home supply was low and prices increased. Condo market has stabilized.
In real estate we measure supply/demand by calculating “Months of Supply” of homes on the market. How is that calculated? Answer: if no new listings come on the market – we measure how many months it would take to sell the current inventory based on the demand. In Arlington 2 month inventory means the market is pretty flat, and if it’s under 2 months – the inventory is low. The chart below shows all houses in blue, condos in yellow and single family homes in red. As you can see – last year condo inventory was high (over 2 months) and the prices have come down slightly, single family homes prices continue to rise – as we have had about 1 months of supply during the year and hit an all time low in December at 0.5 months. This is a chart for the last 3 years. It is very interesting to see how “hot” were condos right after Amazon’s announcement and how things changed in August, 2020 – when everyone started looking for more space due to pandemic. I did not include townhomes for simplicity reasons – they follow single family home trends more than condos.
2. Prices are rising – especially for single family home.
Here is a 10 year chart for average SOLD price – single family homes are in red and condos are in yellow. You can see the condos have a little dip last year. Condo values are certainly not increasing at the same rate. Per this Real Estate Statistics For Arlington County 2021 MLS report single family homes average prices went up 0.5% from $1,215,565 to $1,209,575. If we take all the real estate Arlington average price actually came down -0.11% from $785,450 in 2020 to $784,590 in 2021. It really depends on the neighborhood, the type of home and timing.
3. Days on the market has increase for Arlington condos.
Average days on the market for condos was about a month, and for single family homes around 10 days or less.
4. More homes sold in Arlington, VA in 2021 than the 15 years prior.
We had about 27% increase in total sold homes in Arlington vs 2020. (3,546 vs. 2,790) This is a record number of sales that has not been seen since the crazy days of 2005. The usual number of yearly sales for Arlington has been just under $3,000 for years and years.
So what about 2022? What can we expect? The interest rates started increasing and I think that will affect buyers’ affordability and their ability to increase pricing. But the prices will not be going down or stay flat just yet for single family homes, maybe by the end of the year if inventory increases. The lack of homes to sell will continue the competition and pressure to increase pricing – especially this spring. With the easing pandemic I think the condo market will stabilize as more people will be coming back to town, but will not go up due to rising interest rates. Townhomes market will stay strong. It will be a great year for Arlington real estate, but I hope not as crazy as the last 2 years have been. Regardless of your real estate goals – you will need someone to help you make sense of the market in your neighborhood and suggest the best course of action. So contact me today and I will help you navigate – I’ve been through the ups and downs of the market for the last 19 years!