Half of Arlington Homes Sold Below Original Ask
Here’s Why That’s Actually Good News.
July 2025 Market Report: What the numbers mean for your biggest investment
Here’s something that sounds alarming: 50% of Arlington homes that sold in July had to reduce their price. The median home price dropped 10% from last year to $710,000.
But before you panic about your home value, let me show you what’s really happening—and why it’s creating opportunities for both buyers and sellers who understand the new rules.
The 30-Second Summary
Arlington’s market has shifted from “insane” to “normal.” Homes are still selling quickly (21 days average) and for good prices (98.4% of original ask), but the days of listing high and getting bidding wars are over.
For sellers: Price it right or it sits. For buyers: You have options again—431 active listings vs. 150 two years ago.
What’s Really Happening (In Plain English)
The Market Has Split in Two
Under $1.5M: Still competitive
- Homes sell in 3 weeks
- Properly priced homes get multiple offers
- Buyers: Don’t lowball, you won’t win
Over $2M: Buyer’s paradise
- Sitting 60-120+ days
- Regular price cuts of 5-10%
- Buyers: Negotiate everything
The Sweet Spot: $700K-$1M townhomes are moving fastest. If you’re selling in this range and priced right, you’re golden.
Why 50% Needed Price Reductions
It’s not because the market crashed. It’s because sellers are still pricing like it’s 2022.
Here’s what happens:
- Seller lists at $850K (hoping for 2022 prices)
- Sits for 30 days with no offers
- Reduces to $825K
- Sells for $815K in week 5
- Still makes money, just not lottery winnings
The sellers who price at $825K from day one? They sell in two weeks for $825K.
Your Playbook for This Market
If You’re Selling
The New Reality Check:
- Look at what actually SOLD in the last 60 days, not what’s listed
- Price at or slightly below the best comparable
- Your first 3 weeks are everything—if no offers by week 3, you’re overpriced
The $2M+ Problem: If your home is over $2M, brace yourself. You’re competing with 37 other luxury listings for only 4 monthly buyers. Either price aggressively or prepare to wait.
Still Good News: Homes priced correctly are selling for 99.7% of asking price. This isn’t 2008—buyers are out there, they’re just pickier.
If You’re Buying
Your New Powers:
- 431 homes to choose from (vs. 301 last year)
- Inspection contingencies are back
- Sellers covering closing costs again
- Price reductions every week to watch
The Strategy:
- Under $700K: Still move fast, but you can include contingencies
- $700K-$1.5M: Take your time, compare options, negotiate repairs
- Over $1.5M: Make aggressive offers—sellers here are motivated
The Mortgage Reality: At 7% rates, your buying power is down 30% from 2021. That $1M budget from 2021 now gets you a $700K house. Plan accordingly.
Three Things Nobody’s Telling You
1. Cash Is King (More Than Ever)
25% of July sales were cash. If you’re competing against cash, you need to be 5% higher or have zero contingencies.
2. Coming Soon Means Nothing
Those 45 “coming soon” listings? Half will be overpriced. Wait for them to actually list, then watch for week 3 price cuts.
3. The Best Deals Are at Day 60
Homes sitting 60+ days have motivated sellers. That’s where you find 10% discounts and seller concessions.
The Bottom Line
Arlington’s market isn’t crashing—it’s normalizing. After three years of insanity, we’re back to a market where:
- Sellers can’t name their price
- Buyers can’t steal properties
- Good homes priced right still sell fast
- Overpriced homes sit forever
The winner? Anyone who stops waiting for 2022 to come back (sellers) or 2008 to repeat (buyers) and plays the market that actually exists.
Questions about your specific situation? The market is neighborhood-specific. What’s true for Lyon Village isn’t true for Fairlington.
Data: 431 active listings, 239 July sales, $710K median, 21 days average. Source: Bright MLS, August 2025.